By: Shane D’Aprile
The Hill

As the national environment continues to trend toward the GOP a little more than a month before the midterm elections, Republican strategists say it’s putting more and more state legislative chambers in play with major implications for the upcoming round of redistricting.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, led by former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, released a new report Thursday which predicted Republicans could take control of another 10 legislative chambers after this fall’s elections.

One chamber the party thinks is now in play on the state legislative level–the Illinois House.

“That’s a pretty good indication of the kind of year we’re looking at,” Gillespie said on a conference call with reporters.

The new REDMAP report from the committee, which was set up to focus exclusively on state level races, pointed to vulnerable Democratic incumbents in at least 30 legislative seats across Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan that were won by President Obama in 2008.

Those states are key for both parties this fall since the current Census projections show all three likely to lose at least one Congressional seat in the upcoming round of redistricting.

Republican strategists said Thursday that economic anxiety and concerns over taxes and spending at the national level are trickling down to races, particularly in those three states, and making widespread gains for Republicans increasing likely this fall.

“The national environment is definitely reinforcing that messaging,” said Gillespie.

The RSLC’s Democratic counterpart–the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee–points out that despite the national electoral environment, Democrats have made gains on the state legislative level in a handful of special elections this year. But the committee admits that Democrats hold tenuous majorities in at least 10 states.

The DLCC is also pressing the argument that Democratic stakeholders need to invest heavily in this year’s state level elections to prevent Republicans from making significant inroads right on the cusp of a redistricting.

Republicans are boasting that if their projections prove true, it could mean a gain of as many as 25 Congressional seats in the long run.

“Anyone who cares about the long-term wellbeing of the Democratic Party knows that this fall, the smart money is in state legislative races,” read a DLCC email from earlier this week. The DLCC has pledged to spend some $20 million this fall, while the RSLC claims it will spend even more.

Thursday’s Republican report does come with one caveat. It notes that the positive outlook “assumes that REDMAP is fully funded,” which the report called “increasing likely.”

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By: Richard E. Cohen
Politico

Top Republican strategists are becoming more confident that their gains in congressional races will have a down ballot impact on state legislature elections – further bolstering Republican power in next year’s once-a-decade redistricting of the House.

In a report released today, the REDistricting Majority Project (REDMAP) of the Republican State Leadership Committee said that its projections – which now include Republican takeover of 10 state legislative chambers – are starting to look increasingly conservative as each week passes.

“We are very optimistic….Things have only gotten better since July,” said Ed Gillespie, RSLC chairman and a veteran GOP official. “We have both the intensity and the money.”

Significantly, Gillespie contends that recent trends are putting in play the state House in large states such as Illinois and Michigan, where Republicans need 12 and 13 seats to take control. He said that GOP takeovers of the more closely divided state Houses in Ohio and Pennsylvania are virtually done deals.

Each of those four states currently has a Democratic governor. But Republicans currently are favored to replace lame-duck leaders in three of those states, and they are optimistic that John Kasich will defeat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in Ohio. Also potentially in play are the North Carolina House and Senate, where Democrats have 9-seat and 6-seat majorities.

Gillespie said that Republicans will criticize Democratic lawmakers in those states for having supported tax increases. “We can tap into voter frustration,” he said.

Increased GOP control of that block of states—plus Indiana, where GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels is in the middle of his second term—could have huge implications for redistricting of congressional delegations in those states.

As Republicans showed in 2002—when their control of map-drawing led to the loss of multiple Democratic incumbents in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania—the party that controls the map-drawing can get a huge boost. The prospective pain for Democrats in those states will be even greater because Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are each expected to lose at least one House seat from the nationwide reapportionment that will result from this year’s Census count.

Gillespie predicted that “15 to 25 seats” are “out there” for potential party switches in redistricting. REDMAP is focused chiefly on electing more Republicans to state houses this year, and doesn’t plan to work directly on redistricting next year. “Our interest is in getting the pens in the right hands,” he said.

Gillespie added that House Republicans are aware of his group’s work. Because of campaign-finance restrictions, federal lawmakers must operate separately from soft-money operations such as the RSLC.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works with state Democratic lawmakers, has remained upbeat that the party can limit losses in November. In a recent memorandum to Democratic activists, DLCC executive director Michael Sargeant wrote, “the DLCC is running the largest Democratic redistricting mobilization in history to ensure that our state legislative candidates have the resources needed to win against well-heeled Republican special interests.”

But some Democrats worry that the focus on big losses in Congress has limited attention to the potential impact in state capitals.

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