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WA AG Poll: Messing with Samples and Playing with Fire

A pair of t.v. stations in Washington State have released an automated survey of the state A.G.s race between incumbent A.G. Rob McKenna and his challenger John Ladenburg, and the results on the surface seem to favor the Democrat candidate, but a quick unpacking of a few key elements of this survey shows that the numbers are better for making headlines than political strategy.  Compare the results of this automated survey with the results of the RSLC’s survey fielded earlier this year. Some of our findings:

– Republicans are significantly under sampled at 28% – a more realistic number is around 34% for a statewide race

– Conservatives are also under sampled here in our opinion coming in at 25% where a more realistic number would be closer to 35% in Washington

– The pro-life numbers are in line, but their pro-choice number of 64% is about 6% higher than it should be

–  And sorry, no state in the Union has a 50-50 gender split of voters – come on

The bottom line here is that Democrat A.G. candidate John Ladenburg has done nothing to increase his profile, and his anemic fundraising isn’t going to allow him to increase that profile, with Washington State voters to bring his numbers up from 45% to 27% to where the automated survey has him at 49% to 42% with just 9% undecided (sorry, not buying that just 9% of WA voters have yet to make up their minds on A.G.).  Ladenburg’s statewide name ID continues to wallow at just 21% with a 5%/2% fav/unfav.  Even in his home base of Pierce County his name ID, folks who have heard his name, is only 29% – that does not translate into a 7pt race.

This race is still solidly in the McKenna column.

3 Comments

  1. Comments  lisa   |  Friday, 13 June 2008 at 5:24 pm

    Humm- do the reporting stations like our local news have McClatchy as their owners? I know here in John L’s turf- McClatchy owned papers “report” only positive on John L while readers frequently have demanded some real reporting thats been ignored. But if you own it , I guess there is no integrity in factual non biased reporting. But it will work to McClatchys benefit if the current multiyear $$ garbage contract proposed by the exiting John L is awarded to the company McClatchy has stock in. I guess when you can make a profit- thats who you support and tempers the scope of your reporting.
    PS- most of the 29% NOT in the business/ building industry here in Pierce County who do recognize John L’s name are gleefully voting for McKenna- we are VERY away of the kind of “little guy protection” found living under the John L reign.

  2. Comments  S_Emerson   |  Friday, 13 June 2008 at 10:22 pm

    “John Ladenburg has done nothing to increase his profile”….

    That’s because whenever an article appears which allows readers comments, he gets publically SLAMMED by Pierce County folks who know how poorly he served us.

    Please voters, DO NOT VOTE FOR J.L., for if you do it won’t be long before you realize your mistake.

  3. Comments  Josef   |  Monday, 16 June 2008 at 7:51 pm

    Rob McKenna is simply the best Attorney General for Washington State ever!

    He’s opened up government, stood up to the union bullies and won, has a perfect US Supreme Court record – including getting Washingtonians their top-two election system most of us wanted over the party bosses’ objections, and worked hard to combat the meth + id theft epidemic.

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