A good read on how the campaign season may shake down down south.

Carrie Cantrell, a spokeswoman for the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee, the national GOP steering group for legislative campaigns, acknowledged that Republicans need to pay attention to the pro-Democratic voting trends in the South. But she added that by running strong, local, issue-oriented campaigns, “we feel very good about the legislative races” in the region.

The biggest effect will likely be felt in congressional races, where the control of perhaps eight to 10 U.S. House seats and three U.S. Senate seats in these states could be at stake.

Two U.S. Senate seats — those held by Republicans Roger Wicker of Mississippi and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina — are far more threatened by former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) and North Carolina state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) than had been predicted just a few months ago. And endangered Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., may find an energized black base her only way to win a third term given the state’s population loss following Hurricane Katrina.

In some ways, the biggest Southern opportunity for Democrats could be county-level races. “Georgia went big for Obama in the primary, and I know there is a lot of excitement about him in certain areas of the state — metro Atlanta, definitely,” said Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University in Kennesaw, Ga. “So I could see it really helping out” in races for county commissions and school boards.

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