From the Politico.com:

But a major wild card looms for minority groups in both New York and California, as well as in several other states with unpredictable partisan dynamics. That is redistricting, a fierce and often unpredictable political showdown, which can be fatal for some local politicians but can assure a decade of challenge-free incumbency for others. Starting early next year, most states will be required to redraw their political boundaries based on the results of this year’s census.

“There are no givens. Anything can happen” in redistricting, said former Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who played a major role in his home state’s 2002 redistricting and now chairs REDMAP, the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Redistricting Majority Project.

REDMAP hopes to spend $20 million this fall in state legislative races to try to secure GOP majorities in battleground states — which would allow Republicans to draw congressional districts and could affect seats in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas depending partly on the outcome of this year’s congressional elections. The New York Senate, which Democrats now control 32 to 30, is a prime Reynolds target — with several seats in play that are currently held by each party.

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Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: The REDMAP Report, Broder’s view, far reaching effects on the state level, Oklahoma’s Republican districts, California panels, supermajorities and Oregon’s failed initiative.

In response to the unveiling of the first REDMAP Report, The Hill reports, “Republicans are forecasting widespread gains for the party this fall in legislative chambers across the country, which could give the party control over the redistricting process in a number of key states.  Former RNC Chairman and current head of the RSLC Ed Gillespie on Thursday predicted a minimum of 10 legislative chamber pick-ups for Republicans in 2010.  ‘This is the first time a wave election year is taking place in a year that ends in a zero,’ Gillespie said at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.  ‘We plan on holding all of our chambers,’ he said. ‘There are four states where we are very confident we’re going to win chambers — Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.’”  The Christian Science Monitor has video here.

The Washington Times’ Ralph Hallow concludes, “If Mr. Gillespie is right, the shift in statehouse control would be the largest gain since the 1994 ‘wave’ election that swept Republicans to power in Congress and that yielded the GOP a net gain of 19 state legislative chambers.  RSLC Vice Chairman Tom Reynolds said that ‘under a best-case scenario,’ the GOP would gain control of enough state legislative chambers to ensure that when the electoral map is redrawn after this year’s national census, Republicans will have at least 20 – maybe 25 – additional safe congressional districts.”

“If the GOP can take back the state Senate or Assembly this fall, that party will get a much larger role in drawing the boundaries of legislative districts that will stand for the next 10 years and exert a powerful influence on future elections,” according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  “With an eye on that prize, the national RSLC says the Wisconsin Senate is one of four legislative chambers that the GOP is counting on picking up around the country.  ‘There’s no question. It’s very rare that you see as much at stake as there is in the 2010 election,’ state Republican Party executive director Mark Jefferson said. ‘We’re very cognizant on this side that we need to take back at least one house of the Legislature.’”

The Detroit News reports, “Tom Reynolds, [RSLC Vice-Chair and REDMAP leader] said Michigan was a ‘perfect example’ of a state the GOP would like to target.  ‘They’re not talking about whether a Republican will win for governor,’ Reynolds said. ‘They’re talking about which one.’  And with the GOP in command of the state Senate, Republicans will be looking to snatch as many of the 24 seats occupied by Democrats that are being vacated or held by incumbents to gain control of the lower chamber.  The goal, say the organizers behind the Republican’s Redistricting Majority Project (REDMAP), is to gain GOP majorities this year to influence redistricting for the 2012 elections. Michigan is expected to lose a House seat because of its declining population and gains in population in the South.  That means the state’s 15-member House delegation will shrink to 14, and district lines will have to be redrawn by the state legislature and approved by the governor.”

David Broder observes, “In this high-stakes election of 2010, much attention naturally focuses on Republican efforts to come back in Congress and the Democrats’ drive to retain their large majorities in the House and Senate.  But for those gauging the long-term health of the two parties, nothing is more important than the fight for control of the 37 governorships and the legislatures on the ballot this November.”

“Forget the economy, health care, even which party controls Congress,” writes David N. Bass for the American Spectator, “the most far-reaching effect of the 2010 midterm elections could be felt at the state level. By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade — a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far-reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections.  That’s not hyperbole. Given the country’s closely divided electorate, the political fortunes of each party chiefly hinge on how redistricting pans out. That, in turn, hinges on how well Democrats and Republicans fare at the state level.  In 17 state legislatures, meanwhile, Democrats maintain a slim advantage in at least one chamber. In a good Republican year, several of those could flip. Even if a Democrat occupies the governor’s office or controls one legislative chamber, the GOP could significantly influence the process and curtail partisan gerrymandering by capturing at least part of the state government. Both national parties understand the implications, which is why they’re pouring $20 million apiece into competitive legislative races, with an eye toward strengthening their hand in redistricting.”

“The 2010 election season that begins [today] likely will reshape Oklahoma politics for the next decade,” reports The Oklahoman.  “That’s because the Legislature elected this year will be redrawing the state’s legislative districts, based on the 2010 Census. And for the first time in state history, the legislative leadership redrawing those districts almost certainly will be Republican.  And it could be Republican for a long time.”

The San Francisco Chronicle reports, “What has historically been a bureaucratic and secretive process of drawing California’s political boundaries has now become a contentious fight over race, power and government transparency.  Two years ago, voters created an independent commission to redraw the boundaries of California’s legislative districts, a process known as redistricting. But even before the new Citizens Redistricting Commission has begun its work, it has landed in a political tug-of-war between good-government groups and Democratic insiders.

“With the amount of money being spent on California’s marquee races for governor and senator this fall, it’s not surprising that the special election to be held on August 17 hasn’t garnered the same headlines as Whitman vs. Brown or Fiorina vs. Boxer. Yet, while Republicans are chomping at the bit to take on these big name Democrats, the battle in California’s 15th Senate district could be just as important to righting the future of the Golden State.  If Democrats manage to capture this seat, they would have control of 26 state Senate seats – one seat shy of the legislative supermajority that would give them free rein to pass huge budgets and impose massive tax hikes on Californians.  Although Democrats hold a six-point registration edge in this district, which runs from Santa Cruz and Santa Clara to Santa Barbara, Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee was able turn out an impressive number of voters in the June 22nd special primary election, which pitted candidates from all parties in a single contest. Blakeslee bested the second place finisher, Democrat John Laird, by more than 11,000 votes (eight percentage points), but he narrowly missed the 50-percent mark required to win the race outright without a follow-on special election.”

“Backers of a proposed ballot initiative that would change Oregon’s method of drawing new legislative districts failed to collect enough signatures.  Petition 50 would have allowed an independent panel to redraw Congressional districts every 10 years following the national census. State lawmakers currently handle the task.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.