From Governing.com:

The Democratic outlook in the state legislatures has continued to worsen as Election Day approaches. With this analysis — Governing’s third since July — we have moved eight more chambers in the Republican direction. The modest silver lining for the Democrats, however, is that no chambers are newly in play.

After taking account of these changes, the overall landscape remains 25 Democratic chambers in play, compared to just one GOP-held chamber and two tied chambers. (Chambers that are rated tossups and lean Democratic/lean Republican are considered to be “in play.”)

As we have noted all year, this is a terrible combination for the Democrats — both an unusually large number of chambers in play (32 percent of all chambers up this cycle — the highest percentage recorded in the five cycles this author has been handicapping the legislatures) plus a startlingly unprecedented lean toward one party, the GOP.

In none of the previous five cycles — which included two national wave elections (2006 and 2008) and a heavily anti-incumbent cycle for governors (2002) — was there ever this wide a difference in projected risk between the two parties. Instead, the typical ratio of vulnerable chambers between the parties has been close to even.

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