New Jersey Polls Shift for Republicans
Last Updated on Thursday, 3 September 2009 02:26 Written by rslcpol Thursday, 3 September 2009 02:26
History of State Legislature Control Question among odd year Quinnipiac University Polls 2001-2009
www.quinnipiac.edu
In New Jersey we have literally seen a once in a decade shift in public opinion. Likely voters now tell QU pollsters that they would prefer a Republican controlled General Assembly by a 6 point margin, the first advantage for Republicans this decade.
The Republican ADVANTAGE shown in the the most recent 2009 survey(s) are even more interesting when contrasted with the steady Republican DISADVANTAGE tracked from 2001 to 2007 that has kept the party in the minority.
The national political environment, the unpopularity of the sitting Democrat Governor along with the nations highest property tax burden are all factors that may be driving public opinion towards the Republicans. As shown in the data below Republicans have never done better with Independent voters and now hold a significant 11 point advantage among that group heading in to the November election.
New Jersey Republicans need to pick up 4 districts (8 seats) to tie the chamber and for the first time in a decade they have the wind at their back.
July 3, 2001
10. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State legislature after the elections in November the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
|
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
|
|
Democratic Party |
46% |
5% |
92% |
40% |
42% |
49% |
|
Republican Party |
38 |
86 |
4 |
30 |
44 |
33 |
|
DK/NA |
16 |
10 |
4 |
30 |
14 |
18 |
September 24, 2003
17. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or Republican Party?
|
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
Household |
|
|
Democratic Party |
48% |
5% |
92% |
42% |
44% |
52% |
52% |
|
Republican Party |
37 |
89 |
5 |
29 |
43 |
33 |
31 |
|
DK/NA |
14 |
6 |
3 |
29 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
Philly…
|
Urban |
SubUrbn |
ExUrbn |
Land |
Shore |
|
|
Democratic Party |
66% |
50% |
32% |
46% |
44% |
|
Republican Party |
20 |
36 |
52 |
41 |
40 |
|
DK/NA |
13 |
14 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
June 15, 2005
10. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November — the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
|
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
|
|
Democratic Party |
48% |
7% |
89% |
33% |
43% |
52% |
|
Republican Party |
39 |
89 |
4 |
41 |
45 |
34 |
|
DK/NA |
13 |
4 |
6 |
26 |
12 |
14 |
September 25, 2007
43. As you may know, this November, elections for all 120 seats of the New Jersey Legislature will be held. This includes both the Senate and the Assembly. Which party would you like to see control the state legislature after the November elections – the Republican party or the Democratic party?
|
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
|
|
Democratic Party |
38% |
89% |
2% |
35% |
40% |
36% |
|
Republican Party |
48 |
5 |
94 |
41 |
45 |
51 |
|
DK/NA |
14 |
6 |
4 |
24 |
15 |
13 |
Philly…
|
Urban |
SubUrbn |
ExUrbn |
Land |
Shore |
|
|
Democratic Party |
28% |
38% |
45% |
31% |
45% |
|
Republican Party |
60 |
48 |
47 |
54 |
35 |
|
DK/NA |
12 |
15 |
8 |
16 |
19 |
September 1, 2009
31. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
| LIKELY VOTERS… | ||||||
|
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
|
|
Democratic Party |
40% |
2% |
85% |
34% |
36% |
45% |
|
Republican Party |
46 |
94 |
9 |
45 |
53 |
40 |
|
DK/NA |
13 |
4 |
7 |
21 |
11 |
16 |
Philly…
|
Urban |
SubUrbn |
ExUrbn |
Land |
Shore |
|
|
Democratic Party |
65% |
43% |
26% |
44% |
24% |
|
Republican Party |
25 |
41 |
64 |
47 |
57 |
|
DK/NA |
10 |
16 |
10 |
9 |
20 |
TREND: Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
| LIKELY VOTERS… | |||
|
September 1, 2009 |
August 11, 2009 |
July 14, 2009 |
|
|
Democratic Party |
40% |
43% |
45% |
|
Republican Party |
46 |
45 |
43 |
|
DK/NA |
13 |
12 |
11 |
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