Today is Friday, 22nd November 2024

Democrats Headed for State House Disaster

From RealClearPolitics:

Four months out from Election Day, the Democrats will probably lose the House and are in some danger of losing the Senate. But losing those legislative bodies would not be the most damaging aspect of the impending tsunami heading toward the Democratic Party. After all, Barack Obama will still be in the White House to stop the congressional Republicans from accomplishing much.

The biggest danger to the Democrats comes from the losses that they are poised to endure in the Governor’s races. These losses are likely to be massive, and illustrate the size of the impending voter revolt. And they could not come at a worse time. Combined with likely statehouse gains, they threaten to put Republicans in charge of redistricting for the first time in several generations, and will potentially provide the GOP with a top-tier crop of Presidential hopefuls in the future.

The Democrats have dominated the governorships in post-Depression politics. Take the following chart, which tracks the annual percentage of governorships held by Democrats since the end of Reconstruction (we have to do this annually; some states had 1- or 3-year gubernatorial terms for much of this time frame):

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