By: Richard E. Cohen
Politico

Top Republican strategists are becoming more confident that their gains in congressional races will have a down ballot impact on state legislature elections – further bolstering Republican power in next year’s once-a-decade redistricting of the House.

In a report released today, the REDistricting Majority Project (REDMAP) of the Republican State Leadership Committee said that its projections – which now include Republican takeover of 10 state legislative chambers – are starting to look increasingly conservative as each week passes.

“We are very optimistic….Things have only gotten better since July,” said Ed Gillespie, RSLC chairman and a veteran GOP official. “We have both the intensity and the money.”

Significantly, Gillespie contends that recent trends are putting in play the state House in large states such as Illinois and Michigan, where Republicans need 12 and 13 seats to take control. He said that GOP takeovers of the more closely divided state Houses in Ohio and Pennsylvania are virtually done deals.

Each of those four states currently has a Democratic governor. But Republicans currently are favored to replace lame-duck leaders in three of those states, and they are optimistic that John Kasich will defeat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in Ohio. Also potentially in play are the North Carolina House and Senate, where Democrats have 9-seat and 6-seat majorities.

Gillespie said that Republicans will criticize Democratic lawmakers in those states for having supported tax increases. “We can tap into voter frustration,” he said.

Increased GOP control of that block of states—plus Indiana, where GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels is in the middle of his second term—could have huge implications for redistricting of congressional delegations in those states.

As Republicans showed in 2002—when their control of map-drawing led to the loss of multiple Democratic incumbents in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania—the party that controls the map-drawing can get a huge boost. The prospective pain for Democrats in those states will be even greater because Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are each expected to lose at least one House seat from the nationwide reapportionment that will result from this year’s Census count.

Gillespie predicted that “15 to 25 seats” are “out there” for potential party switches in redistricting. REDMAP is focused chiefly on electing more Republicans to state houses this year, and doesn’t plan to work directly on redistricting next year. “Our interest is in getting the pens in the right hands,” he said.

Gillespie added that House Republicans are aware of his group’s work. Because of campaign-finance restrictions, federal lawmakers must operate separately from soft-money operations such as the RSLC.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works with state Democratic lawmakers, has remained upbeat that the party can limit losses in November. In a recent memorandum to Democratic activists, DLCC executive director Michael Sargeant wrote, “the DLCC is running the largest Democratic redistricting mobilization in history to ensure that our state legislative candidates have the resources needed to win against well-heeled Republican special interests.”

But some Democrats worry that the focus on big losses in Congress has limited attention to the potential impact in state capitals.

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