From Governing.com:

When Governing last assessed the 2010 state legislative elections in July, the situation looked grim for the Democrats. The Democrats had 21 of their chambers in play, compared to just four for the Republicans — by far the most lopsided split we’ve seen in any of the past five election cycles.

Now, a few months down the road, the Democratic outlook for the state legislatures has only worsened.

In our new assessment — the second of three we will do before Election Day — we find 28 chambers “in play,” a net increase of one from July. Of the 28, the Democrats currently control 25, with just one held by the GOP and two currently tied. (Chambers that are rated tossups and lean Democratic/lean Republican are considered to be “in play.”)

As we indicated in July, this is a terrible combination for the Democrats — both an unusually large number of chambers are in play at the same time (32 percent of all chambers up this cycle — the highest percentage recorded in the five cycles this author has been handicapping the legislatures), and there’s a startlingly unprecedented lean toward one party, the GOP.

In none of the previous five cycles — which included two national wave elections (2006 and 2008) and a heavily anti-incumbent cycle for governors (2002) — was there ever this wide a difference in projected risk between the two parties. Instead, the typical ratio of vulnerable chambers between the parties has been close to even.

Read the Rest…